One of the problem with EA trading is narrowing down the possible market conditions to the most predictable patterns. If you trade the news, for example, you will find all kinds of market responses, from NFP wild volatility, to complete apathy in some cases where the news were anticipated. If you are anticipating either one of the two examples, and get the opposite one, you are in a bit of trouble, and that is the main problem with news trading for an EA.
We try to "standarize" the kinds of markets that we wish to participate, by filtering volatile times, news time, etc.
In our Breakout strategy, we avoid news spikes and wait for the trend to confirm itself as a viable move 15 minutes after an important report. We also avoid those typical times of "back and forth" action, such as the London morning, Dow opening, etc.
In this manner, when we enter a trend, we have some degree of certainty that it is not just a news spike, or a false breakout. It does not always work, of course, but the probabilities are on our side, and also the long term profitability.
When it comes to scalping, the situation is even better, since we only scalp when most of the markets are asleep. That is a sure way of making market conditions similar. After London closes and before Australia and Japan open, we have a good degree of certainty about the number of participants in the market, the anticipated news announcements or general political gossip that might upset the market, etc.
Furthermore, each scalping pair has its very own schedule:
EurAud and EurChf, start at 16:00 just as soon as Europe closes, assuming other scalping conditions and volatility requirements are met.
EurCad, however, waits until the oil market closes in NY (18:30 gmt), since the Cad is highly affected by oil prices. UsdJpy also enters at 18:30.
Finally EurGbp enters at 19:00, because with this pair we scalp a very narrow channel, and want it to be very quiet to perform best - entering sooner will find you "off channel" for long periods of time, should there be the slightest trend leftover after Europe closes, which would waste the whole day waiting for it to "come back", instead of scalping away once the dust has settled into a narrow "scalping" channel.
Granted any trading strategy, and therefore any trading EA, has markets conditions which would cause losses. But the more homogeneous the market conditions, the easier, more controlled action we can expect.
Long live scalping!
Showing posts with label forex scalping strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forex scalping strategy. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Sunday, March 6, 2011
The Best Scalping Strategies - Part 2 - EUR/GBP
When it comes to a successful Forex Scalping strategy we need a currency pair that is reliably range bound and lends it self well to scalping. As we have seen in part 1 of this series- not all currencies are automatically scalp-able. As a matter of fact most are not. Most of the Majors: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF are too wild a ride to take the risk. The notable exception is the USD/JPY - which even though it is a major currency pair is still scalpable - why that is so and what the advantages are, we will discuss in Part 3 of our Scalping Strategy series.
But back to the EUR/GBP - the currencies involved are of course the Euro and the British Pound. Since we are again talking about two currencies from the same Economic region there is stability built into the relationship that is one of the main characteristics of this currency pair.
Even though the British Pound was affected heavily by the economic crisis worldwide and in some ways more so apparently than the more stable Euro from a Forex scalping strategy point of view the EUR/GBP is one of our most trusted allies and together with the EUR/CHF the backbone of any successful scalping strategy.
In scalping we are looking for three things:
But back to the EUR/GBP - the currencies involved are of course the Euro and the British Pound. Since we are again talking about two currencies from the same Economic region there is stability built into the relationship that is one of the main characteristics of this currency pair.
Even though the British Pound was affected heavily by the economic crisis worldwide and in some ways more so apparently than the more stable Euro from a Forex scalping strategy point of view the EUR/GBP is one of our most trusted allies and together with the EUR/CHF the backbone of any successful scalping strategy.
In scalping we are looking for three things:
- Rangebound - so the losses and risk stay small
- but not dead - so we do get many daily small entries
- Stable economies behind the currencies - so geopolitical news don't blow up in our faces
The EUR/GBP offers all three and is therefore a "two-thumbs-way-up" trade recommendation for an automatic Forex scalping trading system.
Monday, February 28, 2011
The Best Scalping Strategies - Part 1 - EUR/CHF
Even the best scalping strategies will only work with a few currency pairs. Many currency pairs will never yield - try as hard as you may - to scalping - ever.
What is scalping really: according to Investopedia Forex Scalping is: "A Forex Trading Strategy that attempts to make many profits on small price changes. The main goal is to buy/sell a currency pair at the bid/ask price and then quickly sell it a few pips higher/lower for a small profit. Many small profits can easily compound into large gains if a strict exit strategy is used."
Of course scalping is much easier and safer with a currency pair that is range bound. A currency pair that is extremely volatile will cause too many wild fluctuations and cause too many stop losses.
The EUR/CHF Cross is one the best currencies for a forex scalping strategy.
Why does the EUR/CHF lend itself to scalping so well?
- It is a tightly range bound currency pair.
- The EUR/CHF is a currency cross - since it does not have the USD as part of its pairing. The main global currency fluctuations are in regards to the US Dollar, the world's "Reserve" currency.
- Since both currencies share the same economic region they are strongly related and keep a tight equilibrium. It is really hard to think that the Swiss economy would prosper when the rest of Europe goes through an economic downturn and vice versa. This tight knit relationship leads to extra stability in this pair - something we really appreciate in a forex scalping strategy.
- Interest rates are not very different between Switzerland and the Euro zone, also contributing to a tight range year in, year out. Even though the days of wild and uninhibited carry trade may be over, a big difference in interest rates in a currency pair creates an overall trend and enlarges daily, monthly and yearly ranges. The GBP/JPY, for example, is a wild ride on most trading days, while the EUR/CHF, in comparison, is almost sleep inducing.
- The one thing that WILL move the Swiss Franc is geopolitical turmoil. More than any other currency the Swiss Franc is knows as a safe haven - or the gold currency. Most investors when fearing wild market swings will run to the Swiss Franc for cover. This currency was backed by gold to 40% at one time and between the Swiss neutrality and general status as a beacon of fiscal prudence this is where people will turn at times of instability and fear.
The EUR/CHF has been a reliable profit maker with our forex expert advisor scalping programs. The losses are very rare, the gains are steady and reliable, as maybe only the Swiss can produce?
This should be a permanent part of anybody's portfolio of automated trading strategies .
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