Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Minimum account balance - and why it matters.


This explains the recommended minimum account balances for our EAs.

Micro accounts can trade with much smaller account balances than Mini Acconts.
The minimum account balance recommended for a MICRO account (where the minimum lot size is 0.01 lots) is:
- For the Combo Pack, $750, (better if close to $1000.)
- For the Master Scalper alone, $500.
- For the Breakout Hunter alone, $250.
Your broker's account should allow "micro" lots trading (0.01).

For mini-accounts, where the minimum lot size is 0.1 lots, the smallest recommended balance is much higher than for micro-accounts, that allow 0.01 lots.
The main concern is that you need to be able to open multiple lots on the pairs if you are going to use the Combo pack, to balance the Breakout Hunter in sync with the Scalping pairs, since the SL is much larger, and you do not want a SL in the BH to consume the profits of the MS on a bad day.
If you trade the Master Scalper alone, this is less of an issue, and you can trade flat lots across the board.
To use a MINI account, you need $3000 minimum for MS alone, so SL will not exceed 3% of the balance, trading minimum lots.
BH can work with $1000 when trading alone, and will still keep losses within acceptable percentages of the account.
For the Combo Pack you need 10k to trade a Mini Account, or the BH will be too heavy on the MS pairs.
It is a mistake to open a Mini-Lots account in order to get the better spreads, if you are not going to fund it adequately. You are far better off using a Micro account.

Regarding leverage
Our Money Manager is optimized to trade between 50:1 (max in the US) and 100:1.
When you trade with larger leverage, you expose your account to Margin Calls.
The way it works is that the first few orders will be of the same size, but as more orders come in, you can get in trouble. 
When we trade many pairs simultaneously and our Money Manager uses a percentage of the Free Margin of the account to determine lot sizes. Every time an order opens, it uses some of that available Margin and the Free Margin is reduced. The more orders you have going at one time, the less Free Margin you have, and consequently the MM starts opening progressively smaller positions. 
If your Leverage is too high, it will allow the MM to continue trading at the higher lot size. 
If at a time when you have many positions opened the market reverses for a while, you could get you into the situation in which you have exhausted your Free Margin. This authorizes the broker to issue a Margin Call. Not nice...

"Margin Call" is an excellent movie, highly recommended. Loved it!
But having a Margin Call in your trading account hurts. Been there, done that.
Much better to call the broker and reset your account to a 100:1 leverage, and sleep well knowing that when you wake up it will be a few dollars up or down, but never have been liquidated for trading at a high leverage.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Understanding Leverage and Risk!

  The difference in performance due to use of excessive leverage happens in two ways:
  a) When we are trading using the Money Manager to calculate the size of our trades, we have the lots sizes assigned as a percentage of the Free Margin in the account. If the leverage is too high, the size of lots would go up too.
  When we figured out the best amounts to trade in our default settings, we used 100:1. We made sure that even if you have orders opened for all pairs, you would never get into an over-trading situation that could trigger a margin call.
  We have tested this percentages and found that they work fine, never a margin call.
  But if you push up the leverage, the lots will be increased with the extra available margin, and you could find yourself over-trading to dangerous levels.

  b) When we have losses, our capital is decreased. If you trade with small leverage, your losses will be small. But watch what happens with increased leverage:
  Let's say that you have an account of $1000, for example, and you are using the recommended 50:1 leverage (maximum legally allowed in the US, and for good reason).
  Let's also assume for this example that 1 pip= $1 in the size lots you are trading on the $1000 account (keep the figures simple).
  Imagine that on a bad week you lose 100 pips. Given your lot sizes you would have lost $50 using 50:1 leverage (5% drawdown is normal for us).
  But if you had been trading at 500:1, you would have lost $500 because your lots would have been that much larger. Now instead of a 5% drawdown, you now have a 50% drawdown on the account!
  To get back to your starting point you now have to make $500 profit instead of just $50.
  Now let's say that the next week is a really good week. BUT, your account is now only $500, which means that your trade sizes are going to be half the size of the trades you took in the losing week, (because the MM will always calculate on available margin).
  To get back to your starting point you now have to make twice the number of pips to make up the loss, because each pip at half-size lots will only pay you $0.50 (whereas your losing pips cost you $1.00).
  To recap, in one losing week you lost 100 pips and the next week you won 100 pips. If your leverage is 50:1, you are pretty much even because the size of your trades is more or less the same, since you only have a 5% drawdown. If you are trading 500:1, your lots will be half-size and with 100 pips you will only make up about $250, to keep figures simple, because the size of your wins were much smaller than the size of your losses. You lost 100 pips, then you recovered the 100 pips, but you still have a $250 loss to make up! You still have a 25% drawdown, even though you made up the pips!
  That is the difference.

  Basically, in Forex the main concern in not how fast you make your profits, but rather how much you can control your drawdown, so the size of your trades remains more or less the same, or hopefully grow at an even pace

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Trading Strategy - Masterscalper - Breakout Hunter

One of the problem with EA trading is narrowing down the possible market conditions to the most predictable patterns. If you trade the news, for example, you will find all kinds of market responses, from NFP wild volatility, to complete apathy in some cases where the news were anticipated. If you are anticipating either one of the two examples, and get the opposite one, you are in a bit of trouble, and that is the main problem with news trading for an EA.

We try to "standarize" the kinds of markets that we wish to participate, by filtering volatile times, news time, etc. 

In our Breakout strategy, we avoid news spikes and wait for the trend to confirm itself as a viable move 15 minutes after an important report. We also avoid those typical times of "back and forth" action, such as the London morning, Dow opening, etc. 
In this manner, when we enter a trend, we have some degree of certainty that it is not just a news spike, or a false breakout. It does not always work, of course, but the probabilities are on our side, and also the long term profitability.

When it comes to scalping, the situation is even better, since we only scalp when most of the markets are asleep. That is a sure way of making market conditions similar. After London closes and before Australia and Japan open, we have a good degree of certainty about the number of participants in the market, the anticipated news announcements or general political gossip that might upset the market, etc. 
Furthermore, each scalping pair has its very own schedule: 
EurAud and EurChf, start at 16:00 just as soon as Europe closes, assuming other scalping conditions and volatility requirements are met. 
EurCad, however, waits until the oil market closes in NY (18:30 gmt), since the Cad is highly affected by oil prices. UsdJpy also enters at 18:30. 
Finally EurGbp enters at 19:00, because with this pair we scalp a very narrow channel, and want it to be very quiet to perform best - entering sooner will find you "off channel" for long periods of time, should there be the slightest trend leftover after Europe closes, which would waste the whole day waiting for it to "come back", instead of scalping away once the dust has settled into a narrow "scalping" channel.
Granted any trading strategy, and therefore any trading EA, has markets conditions which would cause losses. But the more homogeneous the market conditions, the easier, more controlled action we can expect.
Long live scalping!

Monday, October 10, 2011

Broker Performance Comparison

Hi Traders:

EurChf and EurAud. These 2 pairs are notorious with brokers who push up spreads during the scalping hours to get rid of scalpers.
Different spreads will lead to different fills and different results.

Different fills can even affect performance between 2 accounts with the same broker! 
This is normal since they are actually buying and selling us currency contracts, it's not just a number, like it is in a Demo account (hence the difference in performance between Demos and Live accounts) 
Once two accounts are off sync, the results may vary for the rest of the day. 

This happens in all kinds of trading: If, for example, we both put a buy order for a stock, at the same time and with the same broker, we are also going to get slightly different fills. That's trading, buying and selling at a price that changes constantly.

In the case of Forex, and particularly of scalping, which is rather high frequency trading, that may happen relatively often. 
You may get into a trade that I did not get into, because the market reversed at just that point. 
From that moment on, our two accounts are out of sync. 

If we are with the same broker this may happen because I did not get filled and the EA's signal went away on the reversal, sort of missed the chance for the trade. This often happens with variable spreads, like in ECN brokers. The funny thing is that occasionally you could actually benefit (even with worse spreads) because you are not hooked with that order. If the trading session ends, you will not enter more trades that day. So even though I got my order filled, I may be stuck with a losing position and you got spared: I may be facing a Stop Loss, which may account for the different results you are seeing.

This is a rare case, since usually worse spreads mean worse performance overall.

If you have a different broker who never had that price available, then you don't get to place the order at all. This is how it works:
Let's say that the price is 1.00000 and my broker has a 2 pips spread. My broker will sell at 1.00020 and my EA will be able to enter a "buy" order at that price. Your broker, who may have a 4 pips spread, will not even offer the chance to buy at my price: they will offer you a 1.00040 price, because of the higher 4 pips spread. Your EA won't send that "buy" order because it does not want that price, since it is not a good "buy" according to the strategy. The EA would like to buy at 1.00020, but not 1.00040. 
If the price reverses at that point, I am now in a trade and you are not. And so it begins.

If I am busy with my trade when you are not, you could enter a trade the next time a signal comes along, which may in opposite directions than mine.
If the price action remains normal and the price keeps bouncing up and down, both you and I will make money in time, even though we are out of sync. However, if the price takes off in one direction, your position may clear at a win and mine at a loss, or vice-versa. Luck of the draw, it could benefit you or me, but it will not be the same.
That's Forex!

Guest post - by Robert

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Forex Robot Trading Performance March 2011

How was last month? Is it safe to trade today?
A client asked me that question today and the thought kept coming back the rest of the day.
Well, I would not choose last month as my favorite month ever,
Apart from the non-stop human tragedies and the completely overwhelming grief one feels with the loss of so many lives - as a trader a month such as this last one really puts you to the test.
Earthquakes, revolutions, air strikes, nuclear threats - it seemed as if the term "geo-political events" wasn't even fit to describe what was going on worldwide this month.

We are fine in general - what started out as a promising month has seen some set-backs, but we are still ahead for the month and I find that to be no small achievement.
The robots were performing fantastically and were actually doing quite well - we may have inadvertently been too cautious and decided on a few non-scheduled no-trade-days being swept away by the contagious panic trading in Wall Street. Always a bad idea. If in doubt  - leave them to trade.

Once again we had the feeling that our robots perform just fine during tumultuous times - that's why we have volatility filters - to rule out unfavorable markets.

The USD/JPY was of course the currency most affected and there were truly a few free-falling days - now of course it is more stable than ever - with the world watching its every hiccup.

So, hopefully you have traded through this month successfully as well and have come out ahead in the end.
Let me know how you did....

Friday, March 11, 2011

The lowdown on drawdown - or - What is drawdown and why does it matter in automatic forex trading?


650% profit in the first 60 days trading!  
Win 100 pips with every trade! 
Never a losing trade! 
Claims like these are plentiful in the world of automatic forex trading - you can barely turn around without bumping into a new Forex Robot claiming sky high returns on your investment. However, rarely are we told what amount of your initial investment was in danger during trading to achieve such outrageous returns. 
The level of risk involved in a trading strategy is what we call its "drawdown".
Drawdown is the reduction of one's capital after a series of losing trades. This is normally calculated by getting the difference between a relative peak in equity capital minus a relative trough. Traders normally note this down as a percentage of their trading account. 
Drawdown is the very feature by which to evaluate the validity of the outrageous profit claims many Forex robots make. Surely, if the robot is planning to be risking 90% of your investment capital, the darn thing better have some hopes of astronomical profit - otherwise why take such an enormous risk. 
But we all know what happens in reality when sound money management goes out the window: One bad trade and your account is wrecked beyond repair.
Sound money management, with reasonable drawdown, in a low risk setting is the only way to make progress. Insane trading, with no sound controls, only to put your account at risk, always being at the mercy of one trade that could end it all, is a sure way to get an ulcer and lose your trading capital. Might as well go back to manual trading, at least you enjoy the gambling...
So, when evaluating your next Forex Trading Robot please, instead of being seduced by great sounding profit promises, take a close look at the risk settings used to obtain these profits.
Oh - and that last promise of "Never a losing trade" is of course completely silly - it is the equivalent of playing roulette and betting on the little ball never landing on "zero" again - won't happen - ever.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

The Best Scalping Strategies - Part 2 - EUR/GBP

When it comes to a successful Forex Scalping strategy we need a currency pair that is reliably range bound and lends it self well to scalping. As we have seen in part 1 of this series- not all currencies are automatically scalp-able. As a matter of fact most are not. Most of the Majors: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF are too wild a ride to take the risk. The notable exception is the USD/JPY - which even though it is a major currency pair is still scalpable - why that is so and what the advantages are, we will discuss in Part 3 of our Scalping Strategy series.

But back to the EUR/GBP - the currencies involved are of course the Euro and the British Pound. Since we are again talking about two currencies from the same Economic region there is stability built into the relationship that is one of the main characteristics of this currency pair.
Even though the British Pound was affected heavily by the economic crisis worldwide and in some ways more so apparently than the more stable Euro from a Forex scalping strategy point of view the EUR/GBP is one of our most trusted allies and together with the EUR/CHF the backbone of any successful scalping strategy.
In scalping we are looking for three things:

  1. Rangebound - so the losses and risk stay small
  2. but not dead - so we do get many daily small entries
  3. Stable economies behind the currencies - so geopolitical news don't blow up in our faces
The EUR/GBP offers all three and is therefore a "two-thumbs-way-up" trade recommendation for an automatic Forex scalping trading system.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Never completely trust a robot?

The other day I came across an article with the above title. After reading it I thought that, beside the catchy title, what was really the appeal of the question?

I think it harks back to the deep set fear we have, that automation may be our ultimate doom - a la I-Robot or the Terminator.
I think it needs to be said loud and clear - "You are your Forex account's biggest enemy."
Compared to what the average greedy Forex trader is capable of in just "one adrenaline - caffeine induced trading rush" - even the most grave programming error of an expert advisor is a walk in the park.
I give you a real example of just last week: We had a client who was happy with the overall trading performance of one of the robots we developed, but had a couple of loss entries that he didn't understand. He wanted some clarification and sent us his account history. I don't know if you can imagine our bewilderment when we realized that this fellow had been trading at all the wrong hours. The robot's schedule was 180ª reversed - since he had not synched his account settings with his trading charts. Yet he had been writing up some beautiful profitable weeks!  We set him straight and the problem was solved with two clicks of a mouse, but - talk about trading without supervision.

I have said it before and will say it again - human emotions and human error caused by fear and greed are the number 1 enemy of you account.
If you have robot-trusting issues - this is what I recommend:
  1. Do your research: buy a great forex robot from people who care and offer training and support. Make sure it has automatic money management controls and is specifically designed for the currencies you wish to trade.
  2. Install your robot - check in once a day or once every other day to make sure it works fine - and let them do what they do best!

If you want more involvement read about our no trade days - but don't try to outguess the market it is a sure kiss of death for your accounts!
Other than that - trust your robots - they are not emotionally compromised...

The Best Scalping Strategies - Part 1 - EUR/CHF

Even the best scalping strategies will only work with a few currency pairs. Many currency pairs will never yield - try as hard as you may - to scalping - ever.
What is scalping really: according to Investopedia Forex Scalping is: "A Forex Trading Strategy that attempts to make many profits on small price changes. The main goal is to buy/sell a currency pair at the bid/ask price and then quickly sell it a few pips higher/lower for a small profit. Many small profits can easily compound into large gains if a strict exit strategy is used."

Of course scalping is much easier and safer with a currency pair that is range bound. A currency pair that is extremely volatile will cause too many wild fluctuations and cause too many stop losses.

The EUR/CHF Cross is one the best currencies for a forex scalping strategy.

Why does the EUR/CHF lend itself to scalping so well?

  1. It is a tightly range bound currency pair.
  2. The EUR/CHF is a currency cross - since it does not have the USD as part of its pairing. The main global currency fluctuations are in regards to the US Dollar, the world's "Reserve" currency.
  3. Since both currencies share the same economic region they are strongly related and keep a tight equilibrium. It is really hard to think that the Swiss economy would prosper when the rest of Europe goes through an economic downturn and vice versa. This tight knit relationship leads to extra stability in this pair - something we really appreciate in a forex scalping strategy.
  4. Interest rates are not very different between Switzerland and the Euro zone, also contributing to a tight range year in, year out. Even though the days of wild and uninhibited carry trade may be over, a big difference in interest rates in a currency pair creates an overall trend and enlarges daily, monthly and yearly ranges. The GBP/JPY, for example, is a wild ride on most trading days, while the EUR/CHF, in comparison, is almost sleep inducing.
  5. The one thing that WILL move the Swiss Franc is geopolitical turmoil. More than any other currency the Swiss Franc is knows as a safe haven - or the gold currency. Most investors when fearing wild market swings will run to the Swiss Franc for cover. This currency was backed by gold to 40% at one time and between the Swiss neutrality and general status as a beacon of fiscal prudence this is where people will turn at times of instability and fear.
The EUR/CHF has been a reliable profit maker with our forex expert advisor scalping programs. The losses are very rare, the gains are steady and reliable, as maybe only the Swiss can produce?
This should be a permanent part of anybody's portfolio of automated trading strategies .

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Improper Money Management - the reason most forex traders fail!



Forex Money Management is at the heart of any successful investment enterprise. If you ask any Forex expert about what makes a successful Forex Strategy and "Money Management" does not come up in his first three points  I would say that person is probably not an expert and his advise may not be worth listening to.
Money Management is what separates the professional trading approach from the amateur and not coincidentally is the very reason 90% of first time traders wipe out their first trading account.

Why is Money Management so detrimental? It means you have to abandon hunches at all times, be aware what your stop losses would do to your account, you HAVE to take losses and cannot afford to extend stop losses to avoid them and lots more somewhat unpleasant but responsible trading behaviors. Money Management is your constant reality check and most people would rather day dream while day trading.

Why is money management so important for long term trading success?


Amount of Equity                         Amount of Return Necessary to Restore
       Lost

         25%                                               33%
         50%                                             100%
         75%                                             400%
         90%                                            1,000%

So, that means that a trader would have to have a 100% return on his money just to recoup a 50% wipe out of his account.
Very few active traders are able to pull this off - I am sure that these traders use wise money management in the first place!

Stop hoping for the big one - the one trade that will make you rich! It doesn't exist - and while trying you will expose your capital to enormous losses that will be ever harder to overcome.

Start thinking in terms of steady growth with predetermined risk. Put your account on autopilot with good days that are realistic and bad days that are not catastrophic.

They only way to accomplish this is Forex automated trading with automatic money management.

Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Forex as a Retirement Investment?

Forex is usually not the first thing that comes to mind when the topic "Retirement Planning" comes up. Why? Because Forex still has the stigma of "no-holds gambling away - crazy trading" with risk that is uncontrollable and a chance to lose all the money at any moment. But is this perception deserved and even true?
I think we are still in what will be considered "Forex infancy" in years to come. Let's not forget that stock investing was considered risky and not a safe choice by those promoting real estate as the only safe investment choice just a few decades ago.
Trading always is only as good as the strategy behind it. There will always be traders who trade "by the seat of their pants" - in Forex right now they are still the majority - but soon they will be weeded out by the natural selection of trading - they will simply run out of funds.

When you have a sound Forex trading strategy and a system to implement it - preferably an automated Forex trading system to rule out human error and emotion - profits will follow - in all trading setups - Forex just being another investment venue. The advantage that Forex has over other investments is leverage - you can with little money  control large capital - that leads to faster paced growth but does not mean we have to deal with larger risk.

How to control risk in Forex:


  1. You leave trading to a Forex automated system - no mistakes - 100% execution of your Forex trading strategy
  2. You use a robot with automated money management and you trade with low risk. Your account will grow slowly and steadily - and on its own
  3. You apply common sense - you avoid insanely risky days  - no-trade days - you read the news and observe the market behavior - ideally your robot uses volatlity filters to rule out much of the insanity on its own.

Friday, February 4, 2011

How to recognize the Best FOREX EA

First off I know there are many people out there who say that a "best forex robot" is like a contradiction in terms. Their opinion is that all Forex Robots are garbage. They are of course entitled to that opinon but I would question their wisdom, being a long term trader myself, if they truly believe there is safety in manual trading.
A Forex EA or Forex Robot - the terms are interchangeable - is nothing more than a software program based on a Forex trading strategy. Now, of course the program will only be as good as the strategy behind it, and there are a lot of questionable EAs out there.

How can you tell a great forex robot from a bad one? Here are a couple of pointers:

  1. Is the software creator confident enough to offer you a money back guarantee? - a profit guarantee of course is even better.
    Whereas it is a general good business practice to offer a money back guarantee - in Forex trading this is particularly important.
    You want to make sure the company stands behind their robots and will not only offer you great customer service but also help you in set-up and can knowledgeably answer any questions you have. Of course if the company offers a profit guarantee - that really would be awesome.
  2. The EA is customized to no more than two or three currencies.
    Each forex currency pair has its own distinct personalities. That has to be accounted for to create a good Forex strategy. I dare you to show me an EA that can trade the GBP/JPY and the EUR/CHF with the same presets! It is simply impossible! Doesn't exist. So, you can group some currencies as scalping currencies together and trade them in a similar fashion - but if the robot promises to work on ALL currencies in all market conditions run for the hills.
  3. The software company offers different robots for different strategies - and they have created more than one robot.
    This goes hand in hand with the previous point. Each type of currency and each market - London, New York, Asia - requires careful tweaking in strategy. A do-all approach will lead only to losses. Your EA creator no doubt has to have different solutions for different markets. Also, be aware of EA creators who seem to offer too many robots. If they have found a strategy that works, why would they go on creating so many different robots? You are looking for a software company that created a handful of EAs and took years to develop them with real-time testing on live accounts and back testing over several years as well.
  4. Your EA developer can answer questions - and offers customer support.
    In case you need assistance you need to be able to get in touch with your EA developer. Especially if you are a FOREX beginner - questions will come up and should be answered with real trading knowledge.  You want "real" traders with real experience behind the development of your product - not just some software geeks, who churned out a quasi system they have never traded on a live account.
  5. Price is not a indication of quality.
    Unfortunately that is very true in the Forex world. Just because a Forex Robot is expensive is does NOT mean that it will trade better. I have seen some real hack-jobs in my time. Be very careful if the software company tells you outright that there are no returns. Like I said in my first point: a real company stands behind their product.  I for one believe it is important to offer a robot at a decent price and leave enough money in your pocket so that you can actually set up an account and trade well.
  6. Be careful with exaggerated promises of "1000% returns", "Doubles your money in one month" "Never a losing trade"and other stupid quotes.
     A real Forex trader - who should be the person behind developing your Forex robot and therefore your Forex strategy - should know that the growth of your account is relatively slow and steady. I said "relatively" slow because compared to other forms of investment it is actually at breakneck speed - but it should not involve risking too much of your margin and put you at the constant danger of wiping out your entire account. Let's get real here - 1000% profit IS ridiculous and CANNOT be guaranteed - however 200% over a year is more than any other investment can offer you and sounds a lot more reasonable and therefore interesting. Look for robots that offer a believable return and do not promise things that seem too good to be true - because they usually ARE!
Happy Trading!
Stanley



Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Man Versus Machine: The Advantages of Automatic Trading


As a long time trader I was skeptical regarding the idea of Automatic Trading when it was first implemented in a large scale in the 90ies. After all did it not in some way threaten the very existence of my profession?
What a long way we have come!
Automatic Trading is not only here to stay, but it has really revolutionized the way we trade.
The advantages of trading robots are of course obvious.

  • No Emotions
  • Fast execution - no hesitations
  • No "variations" on the strategy
  • flexibility
Whereas the first three points are clear to all who have ever witnessed a "Forex Robot" or "Expert Advisor" trade a live account the last point seems some what arbitrary.

All decent Forex automatic trading systems employ filters to choose entries and exits - they are after all what differentiates one system from the other.
In a sophisticated robot you can control these filters and adjust them to what is going on this year, month or the last 24 hours - with as much involvement as you see fit.
The trader of today spends most of his day tweaking and expanding strategy - not really having to worry about execution of trades.
We have all become statisticians and been able to develop the most sophisticated strategies yet.
What we gave up was a sort of renegade cowboy feel that came with so much stress it certainly shortened our lives.
I think it was an excellent trade!

Friday, January 28, 2011

Nice article by a Reuters columnist regarding the Japan downgrade



By Ian Campbell
(Reuters Breakingviews) - A cut to Japan 's credit rating may not seem to mean much when the country already appears to live in a world of its own. But if Japan can be downgraded, so can Italy, and so can the United States. Standard & Poor's downward revision of the country is rightly reverberating globally as well as kicking the yen.
Japan's debt is obscenely high. Including short-term borrowings, the burden rises to twice GDP. Greece's debt is 150 percent of GDP, and yet Japan has not required a rescue. Far from it. Japan 's 10-year bonds are yielding only about 1.25 percent. The huge pool of domestic savings means the country, unlike other indebted economies such as the United States, does not need foreign savings. The Japanese government is therefore running a fiscal deficit of 9 percent of GDP and issuing still more debt, as though there is no constraint on its profligacy.
S&P's downgrade is reminder that all bad things may come to an end. Japan 's risks come in part from demographics and the world. The population is shrinking and aging. The old will have to be looked after. There will be fewer workers to do it.
The yen may fall further, helping to banish deflation and stimulate growth. But the slide would also carry a risk. A weaker currency and a stronger economy may mean more of the rampant inflation the world is feeling will pass through to Japan.
A recovering world helps governments fiscally but might intensify debt pressures. For Japan, only a small increase in bond yields would make the government's fiscal position disastrous. The debt is so huge that a crisis wouldn't require the catalyst of near-double-digit yields that sent Greece and Ireland into the arms of rescuers.
This should be a warning to other large and small economies that don't take their debt seriously. The Great Recession and deflation made the bonds of governments that were not at immediate risk of default appealing. It is now time for the market to reassess.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

FOMC - a non trade day?


I would say absolutely YES. I really don't see the advantage of derailing gains worth several decent trading days.
Somedays the motto is: "Best defense not be there." like good old Mr. Miyagi said. That applies of course especially for scalping robots. If your robot is trying to make small gains when the markets are in your favor it is outright silly to jump in right after a huge market upset.
 After many years of trading here are a few days we have decided to abstain on a regular basis.
You can find the full list here: No Trade Days
Tell me if you have some I should add?
Happy Trading!

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Fx Trading made easy


-Stressful or relaxed?
-Frustrating or profitable?
Trading Forex can be a rewarding full time activity, particularly if you are fond of heartburn, sleepless nights and overall stress and frustration.
Or it can be easy, relaxed and profitable.
Here is what we mean: 
Manual Forex trading is an absorbing endeavor if you are a market lover. We enjoy studying it and making sense of its ways.
Guessing trades, just the adrenaline rush is enough to keep you coming. But look at me, I’m talking like an addict, a gambling addict. Unless you are very, very good at guessing the ways of the market, the only reason to keep coming back is the gambling, because making a regular income at it is difficult at best.
Trading Forex for a living is a tough sell if you consider the difficult Forex market hours and the unpredictable behavior that often rewards hard study with massive losses. You must love it to endure it. Otherwise you won’t survive it.
Or you can let computers do the job for you: trade Forex the easy way.
Sure, there is no adrenaline rush in Forex automated trading. But if what you are looking for is long term profits, not gambling kicks, it’s the best alternative.
No more waking up for the London Session, no more Stress, no more guilt in all those times where your emotions took over and you went against your strategy just to take a gamble that set you back weeks.
Robots can do a much better job at following a Forex trading strategy than any trader in Wall Street. 
They execute all trades precisely according to plan, always cool headed, no exceptions. That’s why they work!
Automated Trading is the way of the future: Computers trade much better than humans. Every bank and hedge fund manager knows that.
And while you might enjoy watching the action at a distance, why not let your Forex trading robot do the hard work. 
In Forex, the easy way is the smart and most profitable way. Nothing wrong with working smart, is there?